Senate races
Sorted by how likely each race is to be the one that decides Senate control. Independents Osborn (Neb.), Bodnar (Mont.) and Bengs (S.D.) are counted on the non-Republican side.
Other Senate races
Governors
Other governor races
House races
A selection of toss-up districts, sorted by how likely each is to decide House control.
How this works
Each race starts from a pre-election prior built from polling averages. As counties (or townships, in New England) report, the model estimates how far the whole state has swung from its 2024 presidential result, weighting each place by its size and by how much of its vote is in. Uncounted votes in every place are projected from its 2024 result plus that estimated swing, blended with its own partial count. Race dials show the projected final margin on a compressed scale, with the 80% prediction interval as the band and a line at a tie; the chance of winning is the probability that the projected margin favors the Democratic side. Chamber dials show expected seats with the 10th-to-90th percentile band. Chamber estimates come from simulating every race together with a shared national error that fades as votes are counted.